Montreal rallies late, downs Ducks in SO
Hockey Betting Lines
03/07/2010 -
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tomas Plekanec fired the game-winning wrister
in the shootout, and the Montreal Canadiens used a late surge in regulation
and a controversial goal in the shootout to edge the Anaheim Ducks, 4-3, at
Honda Center.
The Habs trailed, 1-0, in the shootout heading into the final shooter, and
Brian Gionta fired a wrist shot in between the blocker pad and stick of
Anaheim netminder Jonas Hiller. Hiller drifted backward toward the net and
looked to find the puck, inadvertently knocking it into the net for a goal.
The officials reviewed the tally, as the whistle had not been blown, and
confirmed the call on the ice. After James Wisniewski could not score for the
Ducks in the fourth round, Plekanec fired a wrister past Hiller's glove for
the game-winner.
Plekanec added a breakaway goal in the second period for the Habs, who
responded from a 3-0 deficit and scored twice in the final 1:50 of regulation.
Gionta and Andrei Markov also scored in the team's third win in four games.
Jaroslav Halak stopped all 21 shots he faced after replacing Carey Price, who
gave up three goals on 11 shots in the first period.
Corey Perry, Lubomir Visnovsky and Scott Niedermayer tallied for the Ducks,
who have lost all three of their games since the Olympic break. Hiller stopped
40 shots in a hard-luck defeat.
Montreal trailed, 3-1, in the final two minutes but managed to tie the score.
First was Gionta, who grabbed an errant Anaheim pass in the offensive zone,
skated to the slot and ripped a snap shot past Hiller with 1:50 to play.
The Canadiens then pulled Halak for an extra attacker, and the strategy paid
off. Benoit Pouliot grabbed the puck near the right side board and gave it to
Scott Gomez, who sent it back to Pouliot. Pouliot quickly dished it to Markov
out in front, and Markov snuck it underneath the crossbar with 10.7 ticks left
to tie it.
Perry staked the Ducks to a 1-0 lead 8:54 into the game, and Visnovsky made it
2-0 when he took a puck at center ice, skated all the way deep into the slot
and fired the puck between Price's legs exactly four minutes later.
With 53 seconds remaining in the opening frame, Niedermayer gave Anaheim what
seemed to be a comfortable lead at 3-0.
Plekanec notched the only goal of the middle stanza on a breakaway 7:48 in,
firing a forehand shot into the top left corner.
Game Notes
Montreal, earning two points with the win, moved ahead of Boston into sole
possession of seventh place in the East...Anaheim sits six points out of the
final playoff spot in the West...Habs forward Maxim Lapierre sat out the
second of his four-game suspension...The Ducks have lost two straight at home
after winning 11 consecutive games at Honda Center...Ryan Getzlaf scored for
the Ducks in the shootout.
<< Gray, Gonzaga advance to WCC tourney final
Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Steven Gray scored a game-high 18 points to
go along with seven assists and six rebounds, as No. 18 Gonzaga posted a 77-62
victory over Loyola Marymount in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference
tournam
<< Allen's late heroics leads Boston over Washington
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ray Allen hit a go-ahead three-pointer with 17.1
seconds left in regulation to lift Boston to an 86-83 comeback victory over
Washington at TD Garden.
Allen ended with a game-high 25 points, while Paul Pi
<< Deslauriers, Oilers blank Devils
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers made 22 saves for his
third shutout of the season to help the Edmonton Oilers take a 2-0 win over
the New Jersey Devils at Rexall Place.
Gilbert Brule and Marc Pouliot each had a
<< Chappell out as coach at Central Arkansas
Conway, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The University of Central Arkansas fired head
men's basketball coach Rand Chappell and his staff on Sunday.
The move came a day after the Bears completed their season with a mark of 9-21
overall, including 3
<< Lady Vols down Kentucky for SEC title
Duluth, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Shekinna Stricklen poured in 20 points and
grabbed nine rebounds, as fourth-ranked Tennessee defeated Kentucky in the SEC
title game.
Kelly Cain added 11 points for the Lady Vols (30-2), who completed thei
BC Lions extend QB Printers >>
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The BC Lions announced Sunday that the team
has signed quarterback Casey Printers to a contract extension.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed.
"Casey has demonstrated that he's not only a gifted and ex
Twins closer Nathan to undergo tests on elbow >>
Fort Myers, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan traveled
back to Minnesota on Sunday to undergo an MRI and CT scan on his surgically
repaired right elbow.
Nathan felt tightness in the elbow on Saturday against Boston
Patriot League Tournament Recaps >>
Easton, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jared Mintz hit the go-ahead jumper with 35
seconds left and finished with 14 points, as Lafayette held on for a 66-63 win
over Holy Cross in the Patriot League semifinal.
Jim Mower had a team-high 17 poi
Durant, Thunder drop Kings >>
Sacramento, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Durant scored 27 points, grabbed eight
rebounds and dished out five assists, and the Oklahoma City Thunder stayed hot
with a 108-102 win over the Sacramento Kings.
Russell Westbrook added 21 points a
Trail Blazers-Nuggets, Box >>
PORTLAND (106)Batum 2-7 0-0 4, Aldridge 6-14 4-5 16, Howard 4-6 0-2 8, Miller 7-15 5-6 19, Roy 3-14 5-6 12, Fernandez 5-9 0-0 14, Pendergraph 0-0 0-0 0, Bayless 6-10 9-11 24, Webster 1-6 1-2 4, Cunningham 1-1 3-4 5. Totals 35-82 27-36 106.DENVER
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
read more
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